Has Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Ended?

Bitcoin is entering a pivotal stage as its price continues to move within an ascending wedge pattern. At present, the key resistance level stands at $86,400, while the $83,800 level—recently broken—has been confirmed as a strong support zone. This point is seen as a decisive factor that could shape Bitcoin’s next move.

Traders are closely monitoring the $86,400 resistance level, which could play a critical role in the short-term trend. A successful breakout may pave the way for a stronger rally. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to break through, a downward correction could push the price below $80,000.

On lower time frames, Bitcoin remains within the ascending wedge structure—typically a bullish pattern but one that also carries the risk of a bearish breakout. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $84,263, nearing the upper boundary of this formation. Meanwhile, trading volume is showing signs of decline, suggesting that buying momentum may be weakening as Bitcoin approaches resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around neutral levels, offering no clear indication of overbought or oversold conditions. However, if Bitcoin reaches $86,400 and the RSI enters the overbought zone, the probability of rejection and a subsequent correction increases significantly.

Following the halving event, Bitcoin is now in one of the most critical phases of this market cycle. Historically, after each halving, Bitcoin has experienced significant growth over a span of 12 to 18 months, and 2025 is unlikely to be an exception.

Large investors, often referred to as “whales,” are quietly accumulating Bitcoin, while institutional interest continues to rise. Many analysts anticipate that new all-time highs may emerge in the near future.

However, beyond historical patterns, various factors could influence this cycle, including regulatory changes, capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and macroeconomic instability. The question is not just whether Bitcoin will continue its upward trajectory but also how these elements will shape the market in the coming months.

Looking back at previous cycles, Bitcoin has typically seen its strongest growth within 12 to 18 months post-halving. The biggest price peaks have historically emerged after an initial accumulation phase. If this trend repeats, the next all-time high could materialize between mid-to-late 2025. While some speculate that the market has already peaked, historical data suggests otherwise. Institutional capital inflows and regulatory developments may impact this cycle, but overall, Bitcoin still has significant room for further growth.

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