Bitcoin began the week at $67,600, buoyed by positive market signals. According to cryptocurrency trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin could peak between $130,000 and $150,000 from late August to early September if it follows the trajectory of previous post-halving bull markets.
In his June 2 report, Brandt explained that the recent Bitcoin halving on April 20, an event occurring approximately every four years that halves mining rewards, has historically marked almost perfectly symmetrical bullish cycles. He noted that historically, Bitcoin halvings have occurred around the midpoint between the onset of a bull market and its peak.
Chart showing Bitcoin halving dates and claimed bull cycle starts and peaks. Source: Peter Brandt
Brandt’s analysis indicates that the most recent Bitcoin bull market began roughly 16 months before the May 11, 2020 halving and concluded approximately 18 months afterward. He observed that the previous two halvings—on July 9, 2016, and November 28, 2012—followed a similar pattern. “If this sequence continues, the next bull market peak would occur in late August/early September 2025,” Brandt wrote. He cautioned that no analytical method is flawless when predicting Bitcoin’s cycle highs, but past peaks have followed a similar growth pattern. If this trend persists, he estimates the bull market’s peak to be “in the range of $130,000 to $150,000.”
Related: Bitcoin Trades at $68,400 Amid Easing Inflation
Bitcoin May Have Peaked
Brandt’s analysis identifies December 17, 2022, as the start of the current bull market. At that time, BTC was trading around $16,800, but it has since surged over 300% to reach $67,640.
However, Bitcoin has declined from its all-time high of $73,700 on March 14. Brandt estimates a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already peaked for this bull market, given that the gains of each successive bull cycle have been diminishing. If BTC fails to reach a new all-time high and falls below $55,000, Brandt indicates he will increase the probability that the cryptocurrency is undergoing an “exponential decay.”
