Bitcoin Rises to $61,000 but Fails to Attract Investor Interest

Although Bitcoin has surged 21% since dipping below $50,000 on August 5th, its price has struggled to hold above $62,000. In contrast, the S&P 500 has fully recovered and is now trading just 1% below its all-time high set on July 16th.

Azcnews Bitcoin Rises To $61,000 But Fails To Attract Investor Interest

Bitcoin faces several conflicting trends, including derivative metrics that indicate low buyer interest and macroeconomic indicators suggesting that traders are increasingly moving away from cash positions. Interestingly, these stock market rallies coincide with a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, signaling strong demand for these traditionally safe instruments.

Essentially, traders are now willing to accept lower returns on fixed-income assets, which may reflect growing confidence in the Federal Reserve’s strategy to curb inflation without triggering a recession. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates on September 18th, following a period of maintaining rates above 4% since December 2022.

Investors are focusing on stocks and bonds ahead of economic uncertainty

Investors are increasingly turning their attention to stocks and bonds amidst economic uncertainty. Strong demand for government bonds, often regarded as the safest asset class, doesn’t necessarily indicate confidence in the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power. Should investors begin to view the U.S. government’s financial position as unsustainable due to rising debt, their initial response may be to seek refuge in even safer assets. In such a scenario, Bitcoin investors might face moderate short-term concerns, although the long-term outlook remains generally optimistic.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recently fallen to its lowest level since December 2023, losing ground against other major global currencies. Some analysts suggest that DXY has an inverse correlation with Bitcoin prices, partly because Bitcoin’s appeal lies in its independent payment processing capability and fully transparent economic model.

US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) 50-day correlation vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView
US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) 50-day correlation vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView

Historical data reveals that the inverse relationship between DXY and Bitcoin has been evident in the past, but this correlation has weakened in recent months, fluctuating between -40% and +40%. This recent volatility diminishes the statistical strength of the inverse correlation argument. However, the lack of a clear correlation does not entirely rule out the possibility of Bitcoin reclaiming the $72,000 level.

Similarly, the recent surge in the S&P 500, which might seem counterintuitive, actually reflects a broader investor skepticism towards holding cash positions. This sentiment is inherently positive for Bitcoin’s outlook. The world’s largest and most profitable companies, offering potential dividends or stock buybacks, are positioned as effective hedges, especially when considering the substantial cash reserves held by tech giants.

Bitcoin derivative metrics indicate resilience and potential for price growth

To understand how professional Bitcoin investors are positioning themselves, it’s essential to analyze the BTC futures market. Under normal market conditions, monthly contracts typically trade at an annual premium of 5% to 10% over the spot market, compensating for the longer settlement period associated with futures contracts.

Btc 2 Month Futures Annualized Premium
Btc 2 Month Futures Annualized Premium

Recently, the Bitcoin futures premium has dropped to 6%, its lowest level since October 2023. Although still within a neutral range, it hovers near the bearish territory. This marks a stark contrast to late July when the premium exceeded 10% as Bitcoin’s price soared above $68,000.

To determine whether this movement is isolated to the futures market, it’s also important to examine BTC options data. In a neutral market, the imbalance between call (buy) and put (sell) option prices should not exceed 7% in either direction. If traders become increasingly pessimistic, the demand for put options will rise, pushing the options skew indicator above +7%.

Bitcoin 1 Month Options Delta Skew At Deribit
Bitcoin 1 Month Options Delta Skew At Deribit

In contrast to the futures market, there is currently balanced demand for both call and put options, as indicated by the delta skew. This balance has persisted over the past few weeks, suggesting that professional traders aren’t particularly concerned about Bitcoin regaining the $62,000 level. It’s more likely that traders are holding back from increasing their exposure to cryptocurrencies ahead of the Fed’s decision in September.

Love

0.0/5

Love
  1. Avatar of minihints
    minihints

    Nem sei como vim parar aqui mas achei ótimo esse post não sei quem você é mas com certeza você está indo para um blogueiro famoso se ainda não o é.

Comments are closed.

Latest

70% Of Bnb Chain Memecoin Investors Are In Profit

News | Editor Choice | Memecoin

70% of BNB Chain Memecoin Investors Are in Profit – CZ’s “Meme Season” Is in Full Swing

The memecoin wave on the BNB Chain is exploding, with over 70% of investors reporting profits as capital floods in — marking the start of the most vibrant “meme season” ever predicted by CZ.

Paypay Acquires 40% Stake In Binance Japan

News | Editor Choice | Policy & Regulations

PayPay Acquires 40% Stake in Binance Japan

The acquisition of a 40% stake in Binance Japan marks a historic milestone for PayPay, paving the way for the convergence of traditional payments and digital assets, and shaping the future of Japan’s digital finance landscape.

Bitcoin Boom Ahead Institutional And Derivatives Data Reveal

News | Bitcoin | Editor Choice

Bitcoin Boom Ahead? Institutional and Derivatives Data Reveal

Market experts believe that Bitcoin (BTC) is in a phase of accumulation rather than topping, predicting a retest before the next explosive breakout.

Bnb Super Cycle – A Massive Rally Or Binance’s Next Big Bubble

News | Altcoin | Editor Choice

BNB Super Cycle – A Massive Rally or Binance’s Next Big Bubble?

Binance’s BNB token is heating up the crypto market with a series of new record highs, but amid the excitement of the so-called “Super Cycle,” many analysts warn it could just be a bubble waiting to burst.

Bitcoin Cools Off After Record Breaking Rally

News | Bitcoin | Editor Choice

Bitcoin Cools Off After Record-Breaking Rally

After a series of record-breaking gains, Bitcoin suddenly slipped more than 2% on Tuesday afternoon as a wave of profit-taking spread and investor caution returned to the crypto market.

Screenshot 2025 09 10 100533