Bitcoin Drops to $62,800 but the “Golden Cross” Signal Emerges

Bitcoin investors have overcome bearish pressure after struggling to break above the $64,000 level for a week. Yesterday, the price reached a high of $64,800 before correcting down to $62,800 at press time.

Azcnews Bitcoin Drops To $62,800 But The Golden Cross Signal Emerges

The level has been tested several times since Bitcoin hit its all-time high (ATH) of $73,000 in March. By August, bears had reasserted their control, preventing a breakout to $68,000.

Bitcoin’s Golden Cross Requires Long-Term Sustainability

Bitcoin Golden Cross
Bitcoin Golden Cross

On the daily price chart, Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average (50 DMA) crossed above the 200-day moving average (200 DMA), forming a Golden Cross pattern.

Historically, this is a reliable signal to watch for Bitcoin’s trend. When a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, it typically signals a strong bullish move.

Notably, in the final week of the August cycle, the short-term moving average almost crossed above the long-term moving average, signaling a possible bullish move.

However, a resurgence in short positions prevented the moving averages from crossing over, resulting in a sharp rejection and a pullback to the $55,000 support level.

If this scenario repeats, the trend could turn into a “Death Cross,” signaling a bearish market. So what needs to change?

Curbing Bitcoin Short Positions Is Key

Typically, traders view the “Golden Cross” as a buy signal, expecting the price to rise in the future.

Btc Futures Open Interest
Btc Futures Open Interest

Whenever Open Interest (OI) surges, it often coincides with Bitcoin testing key resistance levels.

Simply put, whenever the market reaches a peak, it typically sees a significant increase in futures traders buying. However, this boom usually ends with investors closing their positions, leading to a sharp decline in the value of BTC.

Surprisingly, while Open Interest reflects these market peaks, BTC prices do not follow suit. This could indicate a resurgence in shorts.

As Bitcoin bulls enter their fifth day of trying to push the price above $65,000, a large amount of new long positions have emerged.

However, if shorts remain dominant, the liquidation of long positions could trigger another decline, potentially dragging Bitcoin below $60,000 before the next breakout attempt.

This Correction Could Make a Difference

Bitcoin Monthly Price
Bitcoin Monthly Price

On the monthly timeframe chart, the RSI has dropped below 80%, suggesting that Bitcoin is preparing for a short-term price correction. Typically, when the market is oversold, it often attracts new buying interest.

According to historical analysis, when the RSI drops during a bull cycle, it usually signals a bullish correction, creating an opportunity for investors to buy at a more attractive price.

While this situation could create conditions for a “Golden Cross” pattern to appear in the near future, for the market to stabilize sustainably, Open Interest (OI) needs to drop by at least 10%. This decline will make Bitcoin less vulnerable to short positions.

Without such a correction, while Bitcoin could sustain above $64,000 in the short term, breaking above $65,000 in the near term remains a major challenge.

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