Bitcoin continues to struggle at its current price level, dipping below $62,000. In a recent strategy discussion on YouTube, PlanB, renowned for his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, delved into Bitcoin’s actual price metrics. These metrics capture the value of all BTC over a specific period, calculated based on the price at which they were last traded on-chain, and then averaged across the total circulating BTC supply. According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s current state, hovering around the five-month actual price of approximately $65,000, indicates a potential for recovery.
The Significance of Actual Price in Bull Markets
PlanB pointed out that Bitcoin rarely falls below its five-month actual price during bull markets, making it a strong support level. Highlighting Bitcoin’s recent behavior, he noted, “This light blue line, representing the five-month actual price, has always served as a support line in bull cycles. With Bitcoin currently slightly below this line, we can anticipate a rebound from this $65,000 level.”
Checking Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Another crucial indicator closely monitored by PlanB is Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator commonly used to assess whether an asset is overbought or oversold. He confidently predicts that the RSI values in the current cycle will align with the peak levels observed in previous cycles, thereby forecasting exponential returns for Bitcoin.
RSI and Future Market Behavior
PlanB’s analysis suggests that the current bull market will not exhibit diminishing returns but instead will see exponential gains. He stated, “In my view, there will be no diminishing returns. Instead, we will observe exponential returns, with RSI values rising above 80, similar to the cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Ultimately, time will tell if this is the case.”
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Conclusion
PlanB’s insights are invaluable for understanding Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. With the current price hovering around $61,785 and showing a slight decline of over 2% in the past 24 hours, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will recover as predicted. However, the historical performance of the realized price and RSI in previous bull cycles provides a compelling case for PlanB’s optimistic outlook.
