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The launch of Ripple futures contracts by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has sparked growing speculation that an XRP-based ETF could soon receive regulatory approval. The sharp rise in trading volume and impressive performance of the new product in its first days of trading have further fueled optimism within the Ripple community.
On the Polymarket prediction platform, the probability of an XRP ETF being approved in 2025 has surged, bringing Bloomberg analysts’ forecasts back into the spotlight. Previously, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart offered an optimistic outlook, estimating the odds of approval at 85%. Currently, Polymarket reflects similar sentiment, showing an 83% chance of approval within 2025 — though the likelihood of this happening specifically in July is much lower, at just 21%.
Soaring Odds: Could the SEC Approve the XRP ETF by June 17?
Crypto expert Brett highlighted June 17, 2025, as a critical date tied to the proposed XRP ETF. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), he noted that this is the final deadline for the SEC to review Franklin Templeton’s application for a spot XRP ETF.
This statement has gained traction amid rising Polymarket data and Bloomberg’s bullish forecast. While Solana and Litecoin lead Bloomberg’s ETF predictions with a 90% chance of approval, XRP is following closely behind.
Despite the SEC having delayed several ETF decisions, analysts remain confident that approval will come before the end of the year. While a year-end decision appears more likely, there is still a chance that approval could come earlier — possibly even in June. Seyffart commented:
“A number of XRP ETPs have key dates in the next few days. If we’re going to see early approvals from the SEC for any of these assets, I wouldn’t expect it before late June or early July at the very earliest. More likely, we’re looking at early Q4.”
CME’s Ripple Futures Contracts Reach $30 Million in Volume
One of the primary drivers behind the rising XRP ETF expectations is the strong early performance of Ripple futures on CME. Launched on May 19, the product quickly generated enthusiasm, reaching a total trading volume of $30 million in just three days — with $19 million on Monday and $10 million on Tuesday.
Buoyed by this surge, market observers believe the SEC may soon act on Ripple ETF proposals. Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, stated: “Spot XRP ETFs are only a matter of time.”
