Will Arbitrum Price Decrease After Major Token Unlock?

An algorithmic trading firm acquired a substantial 17.08 million ARB tokens, with market sentiment suggesting that the token unlock may not lead to a significant price downturn.

Azcnews (3)

Wintermute Trading, a marketplace broker, just added the Arbitrum [ARB] token to the list with a value of $36.3 million, ahead of its scheduled unlock on March 16.

Information from Spot On Chain has shown that this is not the first time the market has bought this code. Currently, Wintermute Trading holds a total of 29.48 million ARB.

Token unlocking involves putting previously locked tokens into circulation, resulting in an increase in supply. However, if demand is not enough to satisfy the new supply, the price of this cryptocurrency may decline.

A post explaining how a market maker bought many Arbitrum (ARB) tokens

Source: X

Arbitrum Token Unlocking Program

The Arbitrum token unlocking program is considered one of the most important events of the year. The Ethereum [ETH] Layer 2 project is expected to issue 1.45 billion tokens on that date, representing 15.7% of total supply and valued at $2.93 billion.

From the point of view of market brokers, the unlocking of Arbitrum’s tokens may not cause a price drop. In this case, the price decline may not last long due to confidence in the recovery.

At the time of writing, ARB’s price is $2.01, down 6.50% in the last 24 hours. Despite the recent withdrawal, views on the project have changed. The sentiment around ARB has turned from negative to positive, as shown by tracking comments on the Arbitrum project. Therefore, the discussion about ARB on information platforms is becoming optimistic.

Therefore, traders can place a high degree of confidence in long positions. Additionally, the significant change in the number of ARB holders is also an important factor.

Chart showing an increase in the number of Arbitrum (ARB) holders as token unlock nears

Source: Santiment

Maybe just the beginning?

Three months ago, the number of ARB holders was 985,000, but as of now, this number has increased to 1.17 million. Such a sudden increase shows that buyers are confident in the long-term potential of this token.

Taking into account the social side of the market, online data shows that Arbitrum’s dominance is growing. Compared to other assets on the market, the increase in social dominance indicates that discussions about this project are increasing.

Arbitrum's increasing social dominance and falling active addresses

Source: Santiment

While a rapid increase in social dominance can lead to a temporary peak, this is not the case for Arbitrum because it does not exceed normal levels. Therefore, the token has the potential when unlocked to increase in price.

Related: Arbitrum to Unlock Large Amount of Tokens Soon

Meanwhile, the number of active addresses on the network has dropped to 24,900. The decrease in the number of active addresses means that speculation around ARB has also decreased. If speculative activity decreases, then opportunities to sell will also decrease.

However, this does not mean that the price of ARB cannot drop below $2 when unlocked. While possible, the data suggests a recovery could occur once supply increases.

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