Bitcoin’s Fair Value Could Reach $230,000

Trump’s Tax Cuts Fuel Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum

In their weekly crypto market report, researchers André Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi cite the surging U.S. federal debt, mandatory spending outpacing revenues, and former President Donald Trump’s proposed tax cuts under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” as key drivers behind their bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that net interest payments could triple to $3 trillion by 2030—a figure that has raised fears of potential default.

“Bitcoin’s scarcity and resilience make it uniquely positioned to benefit from both fiscal instability and improving market sentiment,” said Bitwise analysts. If current trends persist, Bitcoin could exceed even the most optimistic price projections before year-end.

Bitcoin Reacts Strongly to Political Tensions

A recent example of such “sovereign stress” came during the public clash between Donald Trump and Elon Musk last week, after Musk criticized the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”

Bitcoin’s price dipped 6%, briefly touching $100,000, but quickly rebounded over the weekend due to a wave of short liquidations.

“Despite a brief dip to $100K during the Musk-Trump spat, BTC bounced back strongly on short liquidations,” Bitwise noted in the report. “The bullish backdrop remains intact.”

Growing Consensus Around a $200K Bitcoin Target

Bitwise isn’t alone in its optimism. A May 28 report from Stockmoney Lizards also identified a strong bullish signal: the Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT) indicator triggered for the first time since mid-2024, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 in 2025—and potentially stretch to $250,000 if the momentum holds.

Earlier, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted that Bitcoin would hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by a supply shock fueled by rising institutional demand.

Furthermore, the “power law” model—an analytical tool that has accurately predicted past Bitcoin tops and bottoms—also points to a potential surge toward $200,000 by the end of this year.