Bitcoin has just recorded a weekly closing price near $94,000, marking an impressive 53.61% gain compared to the same period last year. Since the most recent halving in 2024, the market has shifted from early-year excitement to a phase of “mature growth,” built on the sustainable expansion of the blockchain ecosystem rather than short-term speculative frenzies.
Bitcoin’s solid foundation is steadily overcoming fear and speculative sentiment. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the “realized price” over the year — the average price at which BTC last moved — has surged by 61.82%. Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) has fallen by 8.98% compared to a year ago. This indicates that long-term investors are steadily raising their cost basis at a faster pace than speculative prices are increasing — a highly positive sign for the current cycle.
A negative MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value relative to a year ago — a pattern often observed before significant price rallies. This “compression” of value is seen as a catalyst for a new growth phase, with analysts expecting Bitcoin to potentially set a new all-time high above $110,000 if demand continues to accelerate.
Moreover, cohort-based data shows that “speculative premiums” are decreasing: the cost basis for holders within one month is now about 5% lower than that of six-month holders. The current market structure closely resembles historical accumulation phases, and the 180-day moving average — often a trigger for strong upward momentum — is just five to six weeks away.
This timeline also aligns with the forecast from Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin will set a new peak around $120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic reallocations away from U.S. assets. He also notes that U.S. Treasury bond premiums are currently elevated — a factor closely correlated with Bitcoin prices — and that intraday trading behavior suggests American investors have increasingly been shifting toward foreign assets, a trend that has been building since the trade war initiated under President Donald Trump on April 2.
