Bitcoin has just recorded a weekly closing price near $94,000, marking an impressive 53.61% gain compared to the same period last year. Since the most recent halving in 2024, the market has shifted from early-year excitement to a phase of “mature growth,” built on the sustainable expansion of the blockchain ecosystem rather than short-term speculative frenzies.
Bitcoin’s solid foundation is steadily overcoming fear and speculative sentiment. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the “realized price” over the year — the average price at which BTC last moved — has surged by 61.82%. Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) has fallen by 8.98% compared to a year ago. This indicates that long-term investors are steadily raising their cost basis at a faster pace than speculative prices are increasing — a highly positive sign for the current cycle.

A negative MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value relative to a year ago — a pattern often observed before significant price rallies. This “compression” of value is seen as a catalyst for a new growth phase, with analysts expecting Bitcoin to potentially set a new all-time high above $110,000 if demand continues to accelerate.
Moreover, cohort-based data shows that “speculative premiums” are decreasing: the cost basis for holders within one month is now about 5% lower than that of six-month holders. The current market structure closely resembles historical accumulation phases, and the 180-day moving average — often a trigger for strong upward momentum — is just five to six weeks away.

This timeline also aligns with the forecast from Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin will set a new peak around $120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic reallocations away from U.S. assets. He also notes that U.S. Treasury bond premiums are currently elevated — a factor closely correlated with Bitcoin prices — and that intraday trading behavior suggests American investors have increasingly been shifting toward foreign assets, a trend that has been building since the trade war initiated under President Donald Trump on April 2.
 BTC
                        BTC                     ETH
                        ETH                     XRP
                        XRP                     USDT
                        USDT                     BNB
                        BNB                     SOL
                        SOL                     USDC
                        USDC                     DOGE
                        DOGE                     TRX
                        TRX                     ADA
                        ADA                    






