Bitcoin Continues to Post Impressive Gains

Bitcoin is entering a phase of sustainable growth following the 2024 halving, as its solid foundation and rising demand fuel expectations for new record highs.

Bitcoin Continues To Post Impressive Gains

Bitcoin has just recorded a weekly closing price near $94,000, marking an impressive 53.61% gain compared to the same period last year. Since the most recent halving in 2024, the market has shifted from early-year excitement to a phase of “mature growth,” built on the sustainable expansion of the blockchain ecosystem rather than short-term speculative frenzies.

Bitcoin’s solid foundation is steadily overcoming fear and speculative sentiment. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the “realized price” over the year — the average price at which BTC last moved — has surged by 61.82%. Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) has fallen by 8.98% compared to a year ago. This indicates that long-term investors are steadily raising their cost basis at a faster pace than speculative prices are increasing — a highly positive sign for the current cycle.

Bitcoin Mvrv Signal
Bitcoin Mvrv Signal

A negative MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value relative to a year ago — a pattern often observed before significant price rallies. This “compression” of value is seen as a catalyst for a new growth phase, with analysts expecting Bitcoin to potentially set a new all-time high above $110,000 if demand continues to accelerate.

Moreover, cohort-based data shows that “speculative premiums” are decreasing: the cost basis for holders within one month is now about 5% lower than that of six-month holders. The current market structure closely resembles historical accumulation phases, and the 180-day moving average — often a trigger for strong upward momentum — is just five to six weeks away.

Bitcoin Cohort Based Data
Bitcoin Cohort Based Data

This timeline also aligns with the forecast from Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin will set a new peak around $120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic reallocations away from U.S. assets. He also notes that U.S. Treasury bond premiums are currently elevated — a factor closely correlated with Bitcoin prices — and that intraday trading behavior suggests American investors have increasingly been shifting toward foreign assets, a trend that has been building since the trade war initiated under President Donald Trump on April 2.

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