The Ethereum (ETH) market is heading toward a pivotal moment: $5 billion in options contracts are set to expire this Friday. This event could provide the momentum needed for ETH to break the psychological $5,000 barrier—especially as the bulls now hold the upper hand after a 22% surge over the past 30 days.
However, investors’ focus isn’t solely on Ether. All eyes are also on Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report, due Wednesday, which could have a direct impact on overall market sentiment, particularly given the tech giant’s ties to the booming AI sector.
Currently, ETH boasts a $557 billion market capitalization, placing it among the world’s top 30 traded assets—surpassing heavyweights like Mastercard (MA) and Exxon Mobil (XOM). While some debate whether ETH should be compared to stocks, historical data reveals a correlation of over 80% with the S&P 500, showing that traders often apply similar risk frameworks to both.
Bears Caught Off Guard
ETH’s rally earlier this month blindsided bearish traders, most of whom had positioned bets at $4,000 or lower. Despite rejection at $4,800, bullish strategies remain firmly in control ahead of this month’s expiry.
Only 6% of put (sell) contracts were placed at $4,600 or higher, while 71% of call (buy) contracts sit below $4,600, with heavy clusters around $4,400–$4,500. This imbalance highlights strong bullish momentum to defend higher price levels.
Scenarios for Options Expiry (Deribit Data)
$4,050 – $4,350: $820M calls vs. $260M puts → bulls gain $560M.
$4,350 – $4,550: $1.05B calls vs. $140M puts → bulls gain $915M.
$4,550 – $4,850: $1.4B calls vs. $45M puts → bulls gain $1.35B.
$4,850 – $5,200: $1.82B calls vs. $2M puts → bulls gain $1.8B.
Clearly, Friday’s expiry is set to deliver a decisive win for the bulls, even if ETH dips back toward $4,400. Yet, whether ETH can climb beyond $5,000 in the coming weeks will likely hinge on broader sentiment—driven in part by Nvidia’s earnings report and traders’ outlook on global economic growth.
