Despite underperforming both gold and the Nasdaq 100 throughout 2025, Bitcoin is being positioned by VanEck as one of the most promising growth assets for 2026. According to the global asset manager, today’s disappointment may quietly be laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next major breakout.
In its newly released 2026 outlook, David Schassler, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at VanEck, argued that the market is undervaluing Bitcoin’s long-term potential by focusing too heavily on short-term performance and an unfavorable macroeconomic backdrop.
Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term Thesis Remains Intact
Year-to-date, Bitcoin’s performance is estimated to be around 50% behind the Nasdaq 100, while also significantly lagging gold. However, VanEck stresses that this divergence does not reflect any fundamental deterioration in Bitcoin’s investment case.
Instead, Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025 has largely been driven by two cyclical factors:
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A decline in investor risk appetite
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Continued tight global liquidity conditions
“Bitcoin is being suppressed by constrained liquidity and risk-off sentiment, but its core investment thesis remains fully intact,” Schassler noted.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to react sharply when liquidity returns to the financial system. Notably, Schassler revealed that VanEck is actively accumulating Bitcoin at current levels, viewing the widening performance gap between BTC and other risk assets as a clear sign of market mispricing.
VanEck expects that once central banks are forced to ease monetary policy again, Bitcoin—due to its fixed supply—will respond faster and more aggressively than traditional assets.
Fiscal Inflation and Currency Debasement as Long-Term Catalysts
VanEck’s long-term outlook centers on the concept of monetary debasement—the gradual erosion of fiat currency value caused by rising public debt and expanding government spending.
According to Schassler, financing future fiscal obligations and political ambitions will increasingly rely on money creation, which in turn:
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Drives demand for scarce assets
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Strengthens the role of Bitcoin and gold as stores of value
VanEck forecasts that gold could approach $5,000 per ounce within the next year, extending its powerful rally after gaining more than 70% this year and currently trading near $4,492 per ounce.
Bitcoin, the firm believes, is likely to follow gold’s upward trajectory—but with significantly higher volatility, implying greater upside potential once macroeconomic conditions turn favorable.
