Bitcoin’s liveliness indicator has surged to new highs, signaling strong underlying demand despite price corrections. According to analysts, this trend may indicate that the current bull cycle is far from over.
Key Takeaways
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Liveliness continues to climb even as Bitcoin’s price declines, showing strong spot-market demand.
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The indicator historically rises during bull markets, reflecting active supply rotation at higher price levels.
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On-chain data shows an extraordinary amount of “coin days destroyed,” signaling the movement of long-dormant BTC.
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This cycle’s transaction volumes dwarf those of 2017, reaching into the billions to tens of billions of dollars.
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Bitcoin is entering a consolidation phase, with trading mainly between $86,000 and $92,000.
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Analysts believe the market is nearing its cycle bottom, potentially setting up a strong rally toward the end of the year and into Q1.
Liveliness Climbs Despite Falling Prices
Technical analyst TXMC noted on Sunday that Bitcoin’s liveliness “continues to rise to new highs this cycle despite lower prices, indicating a foundational layer of demand that price action does not reflect.”
He described liveliness as a kind of long-term moving average for on-chain behavior, calculated as the cumulative lifetime spending of Bitcoin compared to holding activity.
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The indicator rises when coins are actively transacted and
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falls when they are held, scaled by the age of those coins.
Historically, liveliness surges during bull runs as supply changes hands at progressively higher price levels, signaling fresh capital inflows.
Analyst James Check added that liveliness had remained largely range-bound since the 2017 peak — until now, when it has broken sharply upward.
Massive Transaction Volumes Define This Cycle
James Check compared the current trend to the 2017 cycle, the first time Bitcoin saw widespread public participation. But the scale today is dramatically different.
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In 2017, typical transactions were in the hundreds to thousands of dollars.
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This cycle, they have grown to billions to tens of billions of dollars.
Check said the huge surge in “coin days destroyed” suggests that the market has just witnessed one of the largest capital rotations and shifts in Bitcoin’s history, as long-dormant coins move once again.
Bitcoin Enters Consolidation, Prepping for Larger Moves
Bitcoin’s price showed little movement over the past 24 hours. Despite briefly dropping below $89,000 early Sunday, BTC recovered to around $89,500 — almost identical to the previous day.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe commented that the range between $86,000 and $92,000 is mostly “noise,” with limited near-term volatility expected.
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If BTC retests the $92,000 level, he believes a breakout is likely.
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If it fails, the market could revisit the low $80,000 zone for a potential double-bottom pattern.
Nonetheless, Poppe remains optimistic:
“I don’t think Bitcoin is far from its bottom. That should set the stage for a strong rally at the end of the year and heading into Q1.”
