According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 96.9% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at this meeting. If so, it would mark the fifth consecutive time this year that interest rates remain steady, currently sitting between 4.25% and 4.5% following the January, March, May, and June meetings.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and members of the FOMC have repeatedly emphasized the need to monitor the broader economic impact of existing policies, including the lingering effects of Trump-era tariffs, before making any changes to interest rates.
Nonetheless, Trump has continued to apply pressure. During a recent visit to Scotland, he again criticized Powell and stressed that while the U.S. economy is already doing well, it could perform even better with lower rates. “A smart person would know when it’s time to cut rates,” Trump declared.
Some market experts also share Trump’s view. BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer, Rick Rieder, argued that rate cuts could help bring down home prices and ease inflationary pressures.
According to prediction platform Polymarket, there is a 38% chance that the Fed will implement two rate cuts this year, even if rates remain unchanged in July. Additionally, there is a 23% chance of one cut and a 20% chance that there will be no cuts at all. There’s also a 10% chance of three cuts, with three more FOMC meetings scheduled for September, October, and December.
The direction the Fed will take may become clearer following Powell’s remarks after the July meeting, as well as the release of the meeting minutes. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly recently called two rate cuts this year a “reasonable” expectation. She supported holding rates steady this month but warned that keeping them too high for too long could harm the economy.
In short, despite mounting pressure from both Trump and parts of the market, the Fed appears poised to stay the course—for now—waiting for clearer signs before making its next move.
