After closing its third consecutive September in the green, Bitcoin is entering October with high hopes of extending its historic winning streak. Over the past six years, BTC has consistently delivered positive returns in October, and many analysts believe “Uptober 2025” could once again materialize thanks to supportive macroeconomic conditions and strong market sentiment.
Fed rate cut expectations boost outlook
According to Matt Mena, research strategist at 21Shares, recent labor data revealed signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, with private employers cutting 32,000 jobs in September. This unexpected drop has fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the CME FedWatch tool pricing in a 99% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction on October 29.
“As liquidity expectations rise, Bitcoin tends to outperform — acting both as digital gold in times of fiscal uncertainty and as a high-beta risk asset when liquidity returns,” Mena explained.
Despite $2 billion in leveraged long liquidations last week, Bitcoin rebounded strongly from $108,000 to nearly $118,000 in just a few days. The asset has gained 26% year to date.
Short-term turbulence, long-term strength
The U.S. government shutdown could delay upcoming labor reports, potentially sparking near-term volatility. Still, Mena noted that if the Fed follows through with an October cut and the dollar weakens, conditions will tilt risk-on — historically a favorable environment for BTC.
Beyond October, Bitcoin has traditionally performed best in the fourth quarter. This seasonal strength was evident during the lead-up to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2023 and also during the U.S. election rally in November last year.
Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, expects BTC, ETH, and SOL to set new highs in Q4, provided that the Senate advances market structure legislation and macro conditions remain stable.
Ethereum, which slipped to around $3,800 last week before climbing above $4,300, is up 30% in 2025 but still lags Bitcoin in October performance (+4.7% vs. BTC’s +20.4% average).
End-of-year price scenarios
John Glover, CIO at Ledn, predicts BTC could reach $145,000 by year-end. However, some analysts argue the bull run has already peaked near $125,000.
“I remain confident that higher prices are still ahead, and any dip toward $100,000 is a buying opportunity,” Glover said. He also warned that once the bull cycle concludes, a bear market will follow soon after.
Conclusion
With monetary policy easing on the horizon and risk sentiment shifting, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to extend its “Uptober” streak. Still, investors should brace for short-term volatility, as any hawkish pivot from the Fed could quickly change the market narrative.
