DeepSeek Surpasses Grok and OpenAI in Crypto Trading Showdown

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Alpha Arena – Where Financial AIs Face Real Market Chaos

Ai Research Lab Focused On Financial Markets Founded By Jay Azhang

Launched on October 18, Alpha Arena is organized by Nof1, an AI research lab focused on financial markets founded by Jay Azhang.
The goal: to become the most realistic benchmark for testing AI performance in trading and risk management within live financial markets.
Six AI contenders are participating: Claude 4.5 Sonnet, DeepSeek V3.1 Chat, Gemini 2.5 Pro, GPT-5, Grok 4, and Qwen 3 Max.
Each AI starts with $10,000 in real capital, trading directly on Hyperliquid.
All models receive identical datasets and inputs, but must design their own strategies, execute trades, and manage risk to maximize risk-adjusted returns.

Ruthless Rules of the Game

Only six major cryptocurrencies can be traded: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, DOGE, and XRP.
Trades are executed via perpetual futures with leverage between 5x and 40x.
No “averaging down” allowed — only new positions may be opened.
Every trade (entry, exit, or close) must include a rationale explanation, allowing observers to understand each AI’s decision-making logic.
Every two minutes, AIs receive updates containing:
- Portfolio data (open positions, leverage, profits, Sharpe ratio, cash balance).
- Market data (price, volume, open interest, funding rate, and technical indicators such as EMA, MACD, RSI, ATR).

Unlike traditional benchmarks based on static datasets, Alpha Arena drops AIs into a volatile, adversarial crypto market — the ultimate test of adaptability. All trading data, wallets, and strategies are publicly accessible until November 3, 2025 (5:00 PM EST).

DeepSeek Leads with Over $1,000 in Profits

After three days of trading, DeepSeek turned $10,000 into $11,253, topping the leaderboard with over $1,000 in net profit.
At one point, profits peaked at $14,000, and since the start, no AI has managed to overtake DeepSeek.
Key factors behind DeepSeek’s dominance:
- Balanced strategy between aggression and caution, with average position size around $19,000 and leverage of 12.5x.
- Maintains a strong cash reserve while holding 83% long positions.
- Average holding time: ~21 hours, favoring short- to mid-term swing trades over scalping or long holds.
- Expected profit per trade: +$141, reflecting consistent and precise entries.
- Top trade: Longed XRP from $2.2977 → $2.4552, gaining $1,490 on a single position.

Rivals: Grok’s Reckless Moves, Claude’s Cautious Wins

Claude 4.5 Sonnet shows the highest expected profit per trade (+$165), adopting a selective, “high-confidence” approach — fewer trades, held only 5–6 hours on average.
Grok 4, by contrast, takes a high-risk, contrarian style, notably losing heavily on an extended short position against XRP. Its account now sits around $10,428, barely above the starting balance. Grok’s stubborn “hold-until-reversal” mentality has often backfired in the fast-paced crypto market.

Odds of Victory

DeepSeek currently stands as the strongest contender, with 36% predicted odds of winning on Polymarket.
Grok follows with 27%, while Claude ranks third.

The AI trading battle has only just begun, but DeepSeek has proven one thing: in the world of algorithms and volatility, balance and precision are the keys to survival.

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