Recently, Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, brought attention to a divergence between the on-chain data and off-chain disclosures from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Illustrated through compelling charts, the discrepancy revealed a significant gap of 19,500 BTC between the disclosed GBTC holdings and the on-chain reserve.
In an update provided today, the CryptoQuant CEO shared the latest insights from the two charts. While the disclosed holdings did decrease as anticipated based on on-chain data, the actual decline was to approximately 566,973 BTC, contrasting the 561,700 BTC reflecting the on-chain reserve.
This discrepancy suggests that Grayscale has not fully disclosed its recent outflows. Moreover, the charts indicate additional outflows from the on-chain reserve, leading to a further decrease in its value.
With the GBTC wallets currently holding a balance of 551K BTC, there remains an evident gap of around 15K GBTC. The CryptoQuant founder predicts the likelihood of more GBTC outflows in the near future.
Recent Activity of Historical Tokens in the Market
In a recent X post, Ju highlighted a noteworthy surge in the Average Dormancy indicator for Bitcoin, a metric derived from the “Coin Days Destroyed” (CDD) indicator.
The CDD monitors the daily destruction of coin days across the Bitcoin network. Coin days represent the quantity that 1 BTC accumulates on the blockchain after remaining inactive for 1 day. When a token with accumulated coin days is transferred on the blockchain, the coin days counter resets to zero, signifying their “destruction.”
Related: Unveiling the Causes Behind BTC’s Plummet to $40K
Average Dormancy is determined by dividing the CDD by the total coins involved in transactions breaking dormancy. Essentially, it measures the pure number of dormant days. Recent data reveals that the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) for Average Dormancy reached a five-year high, indicating a substantial number of old coins being transacted on the blockchain.
Speculations arise regarding whether this metric surge is linked to GBTC outflows. However, according to the CryptoQuant CEO, Ju, such a correlation is unlikely. He states, “The dates of their transactions don’t align closely with the spikes in CDD (Coins Days Destroyed).”
As of the current writing, Bitcoin hovers around $40,145, reflecting a decline of over 4% in the past week.
