In its August market outlook report, David Duong, Global Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, noted:
“Current market conditions suggest a potential shift toward a full-scale altcoin season as we approach September.”
Coinbase defines an “altcoin season” as a period when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins by market capitalization outperform Bitcoin (BTC) over the preceding 90 days.
Duong highlighted that a significant amount of retail capital remains “on the sidelines” in money market funds. If the U.S. Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, this capital could be unlocked and flow more actively into the market in the medium term.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed inflation holding at 2.7% year-over-year, increasing the likelihood of a September Fed rate cut to 92%, according to futures markets. A lower interest rate environment often encourages inflows into high-risk assets such as altcoins.
Bitcoin Losing Market Share
Another factor supporting the arrival of altseason is the drop in Bitcoin dominance. From over 65% in May, it has fallen by about 10% to 59% in August — signaling the early stages of capital rotation toward altcoins.
According to TradingView, Bitcoin dominance is currently at 59.5%, the lowest since late January. Crypto trader Ito Shimotsuma commented:
“Bitcoin just formed its first monthly bearish cross since January 2021. Back then, altcoins only rallied for four months, but if we see something similar this time, we could get an up-only rally lasting until the end of 2025.”
While altcoin market capitalization has jumped more than 50% since early July, altcoin season indexes have yet to hit the 75-point mark typically seen as confirmation of altseason. Currently, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index stands at 44 (up from below 25 in July), Blockchain Center reports a neutral 53, and CryptoRank’s index is at 50.
Ethereum Leading the Charge
According to Duong, the current momentum is being driven by digital asset treasuries and stablecoin-related narratives, with growing institutional interest in Ethereum playing a key role.
He concluded:
“With the altcoin market cap climbing and the Altcoin Season Index flashing early positive signals, we believe conditions are forming for a more mature altcoin season as we enter September.”
Joanna Liang, founding partner of Singapore-based venture capital firm Jsquare, added that three key elements must align for altseason to truly take hold: a supportive macroeconomic backdrop, declining BTC dominance, and the emergence of a compelling new narrative.
“Past cycles were driven by clear catalysts: ICOs in 2017–2018, Layer-1 blockchains in 2018–2019, and DeFi/NFTs in 2021–2022. In this cycle, the market is still waiting for a strong primary-market signal capable of attracting significant new capital and truly igniting an altseason.”
