Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has stirred the market with a bold prediction: Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, fueled by increasing regulatory clarity in the crypto industry. Armstrong shared his view during an appearance on Cheeky Pint, a podcast hosted by Stripe co-founder John Collison.
Armstrong stated: “I think we’ll see $1M per Bitcoin by 2030. Regulatory clarity is finally emerging.”
He believes that the U.S.—as a bellwether for the G20—will set the tone for other leading economies to adopt similar frameworks.
U.S. shift may inspire other nations
Armstrong highlighted several key regulatory developments, including the GENIUS Stablecoin Act and the ongoing congressional debate over the Market Structure Bill, which could mark a historic milestone if passed by the end of the year.
He also pointed to the U.S. government’s surprising support for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—an idea that would have been laughed at just five years ago. In his view, if the U.S. officially holds Bitcoin, other countries will follow suit. Currently, Coinbase provides services to around 140 sovereign entities, spanning local, state, and international governments.
Declining risks could unlock institutional capital
According to Armstrong, the reduction of risks surrounding Bitcoin is the key driver that could propel the asset to $1 million. While regulatory risks may never fully disappear, the possibility of governments outright banning Bitcoin has largely diminished. This, he argued, will encourage institutions to allocate more capital to BTC.
Many institutional investors currently hold just 1% of their portfolios in Bitcoin, rather than the potential 5%, as they wait for more regulatory clarity. The success of Bitcoin ETFs has already demonstrated the scale of institutional demand ready to enter the market.
On the technical side, Armstrong noted that risks to the Bitcoin Network’s fundamental security appear to be declining. While he is uncertain if Bitcoin Core is already post-quantum, he acknowledged the importance of upgrading the network to withstand future quantum threats. Teams behind Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are already working on quantum-resistant solutions.
Still, Armstrong emphasized that this is only a personal prediction, not financial advice. He is not alone in his bullish outlook: Standard Chartered has also forecast Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2028.
