Bitcoin’s Dip Before FOMC Is Just Temporary Derisking, Not a Trend Reversal

Some analysts have warned that BTC could retest the support zone between $114,000 and $110,000. However, upcoming macroeconomic events—particularly the FOMC meeting minutes and a highly anticipated U.S. government crypto policy report that may include information on a national Bitcoin reserve—could potentially reverse the current downtrend.

Investors are hopeful that President Trump will move forward with plans to formalize a strategic Bitcoin reserve. If the report confirms that the U.S. government holds a significant amount of BTC, it could trigger a positive market reaction.

Wednesday is also packed with major events: quarterly earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Ford, and Robinhood, as well as key U.S. economic data, including Nonfarm Payroll, PMI, GDP, consumer sentiment, and the ISM reports on manufacturing and services. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak following the central bank’s interest rate decision.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets currently price in a 98% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%–4.5% range, despite mounting pressure from President Trump to cut rates immediately. Still, Powell seems committed to a data-driven approach, keeping the door open for rate hikes or cuts depending on future economic indicators.

As seen in previous FOMC lead-ups, crypto investors are reducing exposure. Most large-cap tokens sold off on Tuesday. Data from TRDR shows that Bitcoin’s aggregate open interest dropped from $50.58 billion to $49.58 billion shortly after the U.S. market opened. Long liquidations also picked up pace, with Coinglass reporting $173.8 million in long positions liquidated over the past 12 hours.

What Could Trigger a Breakout?

Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin’s intraday volatility has dropped nearly 45%, with its daily high-to-low range narrowing from $4,200 on July 14 to just $2,300 — a sign of consolidation and an impending major move. Bollinger Bands are also tightening, indicating that a significant breakout may be near. If the Fed minutes align with market expectations and the White House crypto report delivers bullish news, Bitcoin may finally break out of its range and resume its upward trajectory.