Bitcoin Unlikely to Rally Until the US–China Deal Is Finalized

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After a steep sell-off in early October, Bitcoin has recovered impressively by more than 13%, yet bulls still struggle to break through the tough $116,000 barrier. Technical indicators suggest that a daily close above this level is needed to confirm a bullish trend reversal.

Key highlights:

Strong resistance between $116,000 and $118,000:
Data from TRDR and order books on Binance and Coinbase reveal dense selling pressure in this range, repeatedly halting Bitcoin’s breakout attempts.
In the past 12 hours alone, over $49.8 million in short positions have been liquidated.
Derivatives market recovery:
Global open interest has climbed back to $31.48 billion, up from its October 11 low of $28.11 billion, though still far below the $40.39 billion seen when BTC traded at $124,600.
Bitcoin ETF inflows turn positive:
Over the past three trading sessions, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows of more than $260 million, including $477 million on October 21, signaling renewed institutional demand after BTC dropped below $108,000.
Diverging behavior between whales and retail traders:
According to Hyblock data, large investors (trading $1–10 million) continue to sell into rallies, while smaller retail traders (trading $1,000–10,000) are actively buying the dips.

Short-term outlook

Ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, many traders are reducing risk exposure in anticipation of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve—a move that often sparks volatility in the crypto market.

Meanwhile, Thursday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping looms large as another key risk event. Should trade talks falter or the resulting deal be seen as unfavorable, both equities and crypto could face significant downside pressure.

Bottom line

Until the Fed’s decision and the US–China trade deal are finalized, Bitcoin is likely to continue its “ping-pong” movement within a narrow range between $110,000 support and $116,000 resistance.
The market remains stretched tight—one decisive move from the Fed or the trade talks could set Bitcoin’s next major trend in motion.

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