Bitcoin (BTC) has surged beyond the $45,000 threshold, marking its highest value in almost two years, fueled by the widespread anticipation of the imminent approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Starting the year at $42,000, Bitcoin has witnessed a remarkable 6% surge in the last 24 hours and an impressive 170% growth over the past year, as indicated by CoinMarketCap data.
This surge has propelled Bitcoin to achieve its highest price point in 2024 within just the first two days of the year, surpassing all levels reached in 2023. The market’s focus is currently fixed on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), awaiting its decision on the 14 pending applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF. This regulatory anticipation amplifies the significance of Bitcoin’s current price performance.
The last time Bitcoin soared above $45,000 was nearly 20 months ago, on April 5, 2022, before descending into a prolonged bear market that saw the cryptocurrency plummet to as low as $15,600, according to TradingView data.
As the market eagerly awaits the SEC’s decision, opinions vary among market commentators regarding the potential short-term impact of an ETF approval on Bitcoin’s price. The stage is set for a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency landscape.
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According to analysts at the crypto options trading platform Greeks.live, a substantial rally in Bitcoin is unlikely on the day of approval due to diminishing implied volatility in Bitcoin options. However, traders on X, including Scott Melkor, who commands a following of 925,000, offer a divergent perspective. Melkor asserts that Bitcoin is currently shaping a “bull pennant” after a month of consolidation around the $40,000 mark. In his forecast, he envisions Bitcoin surging to as high as $54,000 in the days following a potential SEC approval.
On the other hand, Gabor Gurbacs, an advisor at VanEck, anticipates the initial days of a spot Bitcoin ETF to be deemed a “letdown” by broader market standards. Despite this, Gurbacs holds a long-term optimism, predicting that these ETFs will attract trillions of dollars in inflows over the coming years. The varying opinions underscore the complexity and uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF approval on the market.
