Bitcoin (BTC) is showing the first signs of a potential recovery, supported by the TD Sequential buy indicator on the hourly chart and improving technical momentum.
Although it has yet to surpass the $96,000 threshold, a range of on-chain and derivatives market data suggests that Bitcoin may be in a phase of accumulation ahead of a breakout—provided that key structural signals continue to align.
Whales are buying again—but not with full force
A positive sign comes from increased net inflows to large wallets: the Netflow indicator rose by 26.41% over the past week, reflecting short-term confidence at the current price level. However, 30-day and 90-day net flows have plummeted by -108.09% and -110.13% respectively, indicating that long-term selling pressure is still lingering and may hinder a sustainable recovery.
Meanwhile, data from Glassnode recorded over 925,000 active addresses in the past 24 hours—the highest level in six months—signaling renewed network activity. However, Santiment’s DAA divergence sits at -225.82%, warning that BTC’s price is rising faster than actual user growth, a potential sign of excessive market excitement detached from fundamentals.
Valuation metrics paint a mixed picture
Current valuation indicators for Bitcoin are sending conflicting signals. The Puell Multiple stands at 1.36—considered a healthy range for miner profitability. However, the NVT and NVM ratios have surged by 50% and 26% respectively, suggesting that market capitalization is outpacing both transaction volume and user activity. At the same time, the Stock-to-Flow ratio has dropped by 50%, reflecting waning confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity-driven valuation.
Overall, the market remains in a “gray zone” in terms of valuation—not overpriced, but not clearly undervalued either.
Key price levels: $94,000 and $98,000
Liquidation heatmaps on Binance show dense liquidity clusters forming around the $94,000 and $98,000 levels—two critical price points that could determine BTC’s next move.
If BTC breaks above $98,000, a cascade of short liquidations could propel prices upward. Conversely, a drop below $94,000 may trigger long liquidations, increasing selling pressure across the board.
Bitcoin is gaining upward momentum with increased network activity and renewed interest from whales. However, long-term selling pressure, negative price-to-activity divergence, and mixed valuation signals suggest the $98,000 mark remains a tough barrier in the short term.
While a recovery may be underway, traders are advised to remain cautious and await further confirmation from key technical indicators before making decisive moves.
