Bitcoin is attempting to hold onto its early-2026 highs as the weekly close approaches, with heightened volatility risks driven by geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Venezuela. The situation is increasingly seen as a potential catalyst that could set both traditional financial markets (TradFi) and crypto in motion.
As the weekly candle draws to a close, BTC remains near its year-to-date highs, prompting traders to brace for aggressive liquidity sweeps once global markets reopen.
Bitcoin Volatility Builds Ahead of Weekly Close
Data from TradingView shows Bitcoin holding above the $91,000 level, with volatility picking up notably. Over the weekend, BTC/USD gained as much as 2% as crypto markets delivered their first reaction to the latest U.S. military move involving Venezuela.
With traditional markets yet to reopen, traders turned their attention to exchange order-book liquidity in search of clues about Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that the largest nearby liquidity cluster currently sits below the yearly open, around the $88,000 region. On the upside, $92,000 remains the key level to watch, aligning with the upper boundary of a trading range that has capped price for an extended period.
Meanwhile, market commentator Exitpump pointed out that order books show “thin air” above $95,000. Should Bitcoin break through current resistance, this lack of overhead liquidity could pave the way for a rapid move toward a retest of the psychological $100,000 level.
That said, traders remain cautious. Recent weekly candle closes have repeatedly produced “fakeouts” in both directions, with the market liquidating nearby positions while failing to escape its local range.
Still, some technical signals suggest change may finally be underway. Trader Alan Tardigrade reported that BTC/USD has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the two-hour timeframe, with $90,000 identified as a critical level that must hold to confirm a new directional move.
Crypto Poised to Move in Sync With TradFi on Venezuela Developments
From a macro perspective, expectations for heightened volatility across global markets are solidifying as futures prepare to open. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned that the weekend’s events in Venezuela could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for oil markets.
According to Kobeissi, the global macro environment is shifting, and not only stocks, commodities, and bonds, but also crypto assets are likely to react.
Notably, Venezuela holds the largest gold reserves in Latin America, increasing pressure on gold markets that had shown weakness toward year-end—contrasting with crypto’s recent rebound.
Comparing Bitcoin’s outlook with gold, prominent trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe expressed optimism. He suggested that the BTC/gold pair is beginning to form an uptrend, although a higher high would be needed to fully confirm a bullish divergence.
Van de Poppe also highlighted that Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to its lowest levels since the end of the 2022 bear market—historically a condition that has often preceded the start of a new growth cycle.
