Bitcoin is facing a potential major price swing following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement, with key indicators pointing to a turning point in the market. Notably, the Coinbase Premium Index — which tracks the price gap between BTC/USD on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance — has turned negative for the first time since May 29, ending a 62-day streak of positive values. This shift suggests waning U.S. spot demand.
Previously, the market had seen a record-breaking 94 consecutive days of positive premium, indicating exceptionally strong institutional demand. While the recent flip may seem bearish, the broader picture remains more complex. On-chain analyst Boris Vest reports that Bitcoin’s taker buy/sell ratio has dropped to 0.9, implying growing selling pressure from market makers. Still, Bitcoin has held steady above the $115,000 level, suggesting that large passive buyers are quietly absorbing the sell-off.
Other market indicators also remain balanced. The futures funding rate sits at a neutral 0.01, indicating no clear dominance between bulls and bears. Meanwhile, the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for futures continues to show persistent selling without causing major price breakdowns — a sign of underlying strength and potential for a liquidity-driven shakeout before any sustainable move up.
Despite the cooling of fresh spot demand, there’s no evidence of heavy profit-taking. The Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) and Adjusted SOPR remain below levels typically seen at market tops, indicating that investors are still confident in Bitcoin’s current structure.
On the macro front, the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) came in weaker than expected, while consumer confidence rebounded after six months of decline. These developments support a “Goldilocks” environment — not too hot, not too cold — that favors risk assets like Bitcoin.
Technically, Bitcoin appears to be in a low-volatility consolidation phase. According to technical analyst Titan of Crypto, the daily Bollinger Bands are tightening — often a precursor to a significant price move. He commented:
“Bitcoin is in a pressure cooker. Bollinger Bands are squeezing — volatility is drying up. RSI is compressing too. A big move is brewing.”
In the short term, Bitcoin’s next direction will likely hinge on upcoming policy decisions and macroeconomic signals. All eyes are now on the market’s response to potential shifts in economic outlook.
