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Analyst Matthew Hyland noted that this is the tightest contraction of the Bollinger Bands since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009. Such unusual squeezes have historically preceded massive price breakouts. Echoing the view, expert Crypto Ceasar emphasized: “The monthly Bollinger Bands are at historic tightness. Previous setups like this led to major upside volatility. Bitcoin could be in for a very spicy Q4.”
History supports this outlook. Similar setups in 2012, 2016, and 2020 all triggered explosive rallies. Investor Giannis Andreou added: “This time the contraction is even tighter, suggesting we may see the biggest BTC move ever.”
Earlier this year, in July 2025, a squeeze on the three-day chart signaled the run to Bitcoin’s all-time high of $124,500, reached on August 14.
Cup-and-Handle Pattern Targeting $300,000
Beyond Bollinger Bands, other signals also strengthen the bullish case. The monthly chart shows that Bitcoin broke above the $69,000 neckline in late 2024, confirming a “cup-and-handle” pattern. If this setup plays out fully, BTC could climb to around $305,000 between 2025 and 2026 — a gain of over 170% from current levels.
Still, analysts warn that not every cup-and-handle formation delivers its maximum target. Research by veteran expert Thomas Bulkowski found that only 61% of these setups reach their projected upside. While the potential is enormous, risks of correction remain.
Supportive Factors for Growth
In addition to technical signals, macro conditions and capital inflows are also working in Bitcoin’s favor. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates soon, while strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries continues to build momentum.
Data from Santiment shows that ETF inflows turned positive this week, indicating that institutions are buying while many retail investors exit the market. Historically, such inflow surges have fueled sustained rallies.
Short-Term Correction Phase
Currently, Bitcoin is undergoing a natural correction within its bull cycle after reaching record highs. Some analysts believe the price could dip toward $104,000 before launching into the next upward leg.
Despite short-term volatility, the convergence of technical indicators and institutional demand suggests that Bitcoin may be preparing for a historic breakout, with a long-term target as high as $300,000 in the coming years.
