Hidden Bearish Divergence Signals Weakening Momentum
On the charts, Bitcoin is exhibiting a hidden bearish divergence—a pattern where price forms higher highs while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to do the same. This suggests that upward momentum is weakening and often precedes a price correction.
A similar pattern was observed in March 2024, after which Bitcoin fell by 20% in just a few days. If history repeats itself, another retracement may be on the horizon, potentially driving Bitcoin down to lower support levels.
CME Gap Acts as a “Magnet” Toward $114,000
Another technical factor drawing attention is the CME gap—a price void on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Bitcoin futures chart, specifically between $114,380 and $115,635 on the daily timeframe.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to “fill” these gaps—retracing to cover price areas that were skipped during off-hours trading. So far in 2025, seven out of nine CME gaps have already been filled. Given this high fill rate, the likelihood of Bitcoin dipping to this remaining gap area is quite strong.
Bitcoin Cycle Indicator Enters Distribution Zone
Crypto market analyst Gaah warns that the Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) has now entered the distribution zone—an area historically associated with market euphoria and temporary tops.
This marks the third time IBCI has entered this zone during the current bull cycle. Although the indicator has only reached the lower boundary (80%)—rather than peaking at 100% as in previous cycles—it still serves as a meaningful caution signal.
Gaah notes that other key metrics, such as the Puell Multiple and Short-Term Holder SOPR, remain below their historical averages. This suggests that retail speculation and miner profit-taking have not yet peaked. He concludes:
“The behavior of IBCI sends a strong short-term warning signal. While we may not have reached the ultimate top of the cycle, the market is currently in a high-risk zone for corrections.”
