Bitcoin Hits $111.3K, Worst-Case Scenario Sees Only a 10% Drop

Bitcoin rebounded above $111,000 at last week’s close, showing “promising” signs of recovery according to technical analysis. The latest correction, triggered by U.S. macroeconomic data, still managed to hold the key $110,000 support.

Trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe commented on X:
“This is actually a positive signal. Bitcoin has just made a higher low and maintained support at $110K. If we break above $112K, a strong bull run could ignite.”

However, market sentiment remains divided. Trader Cipher X warned that if bulls fail to secure the $112,000 level, new lows could follow. Echoing this, Crypto Tony stated: “Either Bitcoin flips $113,000 to surge toward new highs, or it gets rejected and falls back to $100,000.”

Meanwhile, trader TurboBullCapital highlighted the importance of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), at $115,035 and $101,760 respectively. He noted: “If the $107K area is lost, the downside target becomes $101K, which also coincides with the MA200 – a logical area for a potential bounce.”

Some analysts even suggest that bears might be walking into a trap ahead of a massive short squeeze that could drive Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs, similar to late 2024 price action.

From a technical perspective, Fibonacci retracement levels indicate a maximum drop of around 10%, consistent with previous corrections since late last year. Trader ZYN explained:
“Bitcoin usually bottoms at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This happened in Q3 2024, Q2 2025, and will likely happen again. That level is now around $100K. So the worst-case scenario is a 10% drop before a 50% rally above $150,000.”