Bitcoin opened July at $107.185 and ended the month with a modest rise to $107,000 — a rather tepid gain compared to the nearly 11% surge seen in May. The recent stagnation is largely attributed to market caution amid heightened geopolitical tensions and looming war risks, which have dampened risk appetite.
Investors are gradually shifting their focus from price volatility to broader macroeconomic indicators, especially as the U.S. prepares to release a series of key reports this week: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, nonfarm payroll data, the unemployment rate, and the ISM manufacturing index.
With just 30 days until the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, this week’s data could play a pivotal role in shaping expectations around potential interest rate cuts — a factor that could significantly influence the crypto market.
Currently, market sentiment leans toward a more “dovish” stance, as reflected by a 7.7% drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield over the past week. However, prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of a rate cut remains low at just 18%, as persistent inflation and the threat of new tariffs continue to constrain the Fed’s flexibility.
Additionally, while May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 0.1% from the previous month — a sign of easing inflation — it wasn’t enough to shift the Fed’s hawkish stance.
As a result, investors are paying close attention to this week’s economic figures. If labor and manufacturing data come in below expectations, it could trigger a renewed wave of risk appetite — potentially giving Bitcoin the macro “green light” it needs for a strong breakout above the $110,000 threshold.
For now, Bitcoin remains locked in a tight range since last Wednesday, with daily price movements staying below 3% for six consecutive sessions. This unusually low volatility has many traders wondering whether a breakout is imminent — especially as the weakening U.S. dollar and deteriorating fiscal outlook add further uncertainty to the mix.
