Bitcoin price plummeted below $98,000 as long-term holders sold at record levels, institutional demand weakened, and market sentiment faltered amid a fragile U.S. economy after the government shutdown.
Key Points:
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Long-term holders sold 815,000 BTC in 30 days, the highest since early 2024.
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Institutional demand has dropped, falling below daily mining supply.
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Bitcoin fell below the critical 365-day moving average at $102,000, raising the risk of further losses.
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JPMorgan notes that $94,000 is the current “production cost floor”, limiting downside risks.
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The U.S. government has reopened after a record 43-day shutdown, which had previously drained liquidity from the market.
During today’s trading session, Bitcoin sharply reversed, dropping from an intraday high of $104,000 to $98,113, wiping out earlier gains. At one point, the price fell to as low as $97,870 — the lowest level since early May.
Data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro shows that Bitcoin had remained above $100,000 for over 40 days before dropping back to the $98,000 range in late June, and now it is testing these lows again.
Selling pressure is primarily coming from long-term holders. According to CryptoQuant, they sold approximately 815,000 BTC over 30 days — the largest amount since early 2024. On November 7 alone, $3 billion in realized gains were recorded, highlighting strong profit-taking activity.
Demand from spot and ETF markets has also cooled. Institutional buying has fallen below daily mining supply, intensifying selling pressure. Bitcoin is now hovering around the 365-day moving average at $102,000, a crucial support level. If it breaks, deeper losses could follow.
Bitfinex analysts note that this pullback mirrors mid-cycle retracements, with average drawdowns of about 22% observed during the 2023–2025 bull market. They expect a short-term relief rally but emphasize that sustained recovery requires fresh demand.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan experts state that Bitcoin’s current production cost of around $94,000 has historically acted as a “technical floor.” Despite market weakness, they maintain a 6–12 month upside target of approximately $170,000.
This Bitcoin movement comes as the U.S. government reopens after a 43-day shutdown, the longest in history, following President Trump’s signing of a temporary funding bill. While federal operations resume, recovery is expected to be slow: federal workers still await back pay, airports may continue facing delays, the IRS faces significant backlogs, and national parks struggle to recover lost revenue. Moreover, the current budget only extends through January 30, leaving the risk of another shutdown looming.
Timot Lamarre, Director of Market Research at Unchained, described Bitcoin as a “canary in the coal mine” signaling liquidity drying up. He notes that the government shutdown caused the Treasury General Account (TGA) to swell, absorbing liquidity, and that with the government reopening, injected liquidity could support Bitcoin’s price in the near term.
