Anticipating March Rate Cuts by the Fed Ahead of Bitcoin Halving

Last Friday, on January 26, Bitcoin exhibited a robust upward movement, propelled by the strength of the US equity markets. Presently, Bitcoin is valued at $42,185, boasting a market capitalization of $827 billion and setting its sights on the next target of $43,000.

The imminent revelation of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate decision for 2024 adds a pivotal dimension to this week’s developments. According to insights from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), there is a strong consensus, with 96.9% of indicators suggesting an expectation of unchanged interest rates.

Nevertheless, the landscape shifts when anticipating the subsequent decision in March, revealing a change in sentiment. A noteworthy 47% probability suggests the potential for a 25 basis points interest rate cut. Investors and analysts are vigilantly observing these developments, recognizing the far-reaching impact such decisions can exert on diverse sectors of the economy.

The March decision gains heightened significance considering the impending Bitcoin halving scheduled for the following month in April 2024. Any preemptive rate cut before the halving could serve as a substantial catalyst for the future trajectory of BTC prices.

Aligned with the Federal Reserve’s impending announcement, the United States is set to unveil crucial economic data, notably the January unemployment rate. Serving as a pivotal metric, the unemployment rate not only offers insights into the labor market’s health but also exerts a significant influence on broader economic perceptions. Throughout the unfolding week, market participants will be attentively monitoring these developments, seeking signals regarding the trajectory of monetary policy and the overall economic conditions in the United States.

Concerning the Bitcoin landscape, the recent launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the US marked a historic milestone for the cryptocurrency community. Despite this, the BTC price faced selling pressure, reaching a low of $38,000 in January.

Nonetheless, an optimistic outlook is anticipated for the Bitcoin price in the upcoming month of February. Historical data underscores a consistent trend for Bitcoin during February, showcasing an average profitability of 14.5% and a noteworthy absence of negative returns since 2020.

Drawing from CryptoRank statistics spanning from February 2011 to 2023, Bitcoin has consistently displayed an average profitability of a notable 14.5%, with the median value closely trailing at 12.2%.