The anticipated 2025 altcoin season has not gone as expected. A key indicator of altcoin momentum, the altcoin season index, remains neutral, indicating that this is not an altcoin or Bitcoin [BTC] season.
Since late December 2024, the index has been hovering around 50, leaving most altcoins in a sideways or declining state. However, some coins like Solana [SOL] have recorded a slight increase during the same period.
BTC dominance surges to 58%
Historically, altcoins’ growth momentum often occurs when BTC dominance (BTC.D) declines, leading to a rotation of money flows from Bitcoin to altcoins.
This process is also often accompanied by a sharp decline in USDT dominance (USDT.D), indicating an increase in speculative investment in altcoins.
During the November rally, the altcoin market (OTHERS, white line) recorded a strong increase when USDT.D and BTC.D both fell.
However, since the end of December 2024, BTC.D has increased from 55% to more than 58%, indicating that most investors are focusing their capital on Bitcoin instead of altcoins.
In addition, USDT.D is limited in the range of 3.7% – 4.5%, causing the altcoin market to continue to fluctuate sideways. If BTC dominance declines, the possibility of attracting capital to altcoins will be higher.
In the meantime, the market remains cautious and awaits new information on the Trump administration’s pro-crypto policies.
At the same time, the Fed’s interest rate decision next week will significantly influence the direction of the market. Therefore, the broader altcoin market may remain range-bound until early February.
However, crypto analyst TechDev, based on historical trends, predicts that the altcoin market could see a strong growth in 2025. He noted:
“The altcoin market has seen a 10-month expansion phase after both previous signals. This is just an observation.”
