This week is expected to be highly volatile as several key U.S. economic events are set to be released — developments that could significantly impact traders’ and investors’ portfolios. The tension grows even higher amid an ongoing U.S. government shutdown that has already caused nearly a 30-day data blackout.
Key U.S. Economic Events to Watch This Week
Below are four major factors analysts believe could drive short-term market direction:
1. FOMC Interest Rate Decision (October 29)
Arguably the most important event of the week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its decision on interest rates — whether to maintain current levels or signal further cuts.
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According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing rates down to 4.00%.
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This decision will directly influence liquidity, risk appetite, and trading behavior across all markets, including crypto.
2. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Press Conference
Shortly after the FOMC announcement, all eyes will turn to Powell’s remarks during his press conference.
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Analysts at AlphaBTC noted: “Powell’s comments will shape 2025 rate-cut expectations, potentially triggering mid-week volatility.”
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Powell recently hinted that the Fed is nearing the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) program and approaching the point where it will stop reducing its balance sheet.
However, investor sentiment remains fragile due to the prolonged government shutdown.
3. Initial Jobless Claims Report
Scheduled for Thursday, this report will offer insights into the health of the U.S. labor market — a key macro factor for Bitcoin at present.
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Federal workers’ initial jobless claims surged 121% in the week ending October 11 to 7,244 — the highest level since the 2019 shutdown.
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Since October 1, the number of federal employees filing for unemployment has spiked over 1,200%, underscoring the shutdown’s growing impact.
4. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, September’s PCE data, will be released later this week.
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In August, PCE rose 2.7% year-over-year, slightly higher than July but in line with forecasts.
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Analysts expect the Fed to hold rates steady in October as inflation remains “sticky,” with PCE at 2.7%, core at 2.9%, and median at 3.3%.
Impact on the Crypto Market
U.S. monetary policy shifts often trigger immediate reactions in risk assets — particularly Bitcoin and altcoins.
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Rate hikes typically curb speculative appetite and liquidity.
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In contrast, rate-cut expectations tend to fuel optimism and boost crypto prices as borrowing costs fall.
As of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $115,553, up nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, reflecting investors’ growing anticipation ahead of this week’s crucial economic data.
